If You Hold BTC or CRYPTO, You Need to Watch This Now! Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin’s latest plunge isn’t a mystery of volatility—it’s the direct consequence of liquidity, leverage, and illusions finally colliding.
Arthur Hayes is a macro-focused Bitcoin strategist and the co-founder of BitMEX. With Bitcoin trading near $91,491, his analysis underscores how 2025’s market dynamics have been shaped almost entirely by U.S. monetary conditions. Hayes highlights that while global liquidity contributors such as Europe, Japan, and China remained largely inactive, the United States drove the narrative—and his Dollar Liquidity Index reflects a clear contraction throughout the year. Despite this tightening, Bitcoin surged to record highs between April and October, a move Hayes attributes not to genuine liquidity expansion but to misinterpreted ETF flows and aggressive activity from Digital Asset Treasury companies issuing debt and equity to accumulate Bitcoin. These factors created the illusion of sustained institutional demand even as nearly $1 trillion in liquidity quietly evaporated from markets.
Hayes explains that once ETF inflows reversed and DAT companies shifted from premiums to discounts, Bitcoin rapidly corrected to levels aligned with real liquidity conditions. The largest IBIT holders—Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Avenue, and Jane Street—were revealed to be executing basis trades rather than accumulating Bitcoin for directional exposure. As funding rates fell and these trades unwound, ETF outflows intensified, shaking retail confidence. This unwind coincided with the broader risk-off sentiment across global markets, pushing Bitcoin toward seven-month lows near $80,000, mirroring investor caution, elevated valuations, and uncertainty around future U.S. interest-rate cuts.

Credits: Milk Road & Milk Road Macro
Arthur Hayes’ Crypto Outlook: Why Markets Are Set to Rip Into 2026

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This is not to be considered investment advice. You should always speak to a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.

All statements in this Video, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements. These may include expectations about Bitcoin’s future value and adoption rate; Gold’s future value; Silver’s future value; US deficit projections; currency values; cryptocurrency adoption rates; money supply projections; future energy demand; future inflation rates; mining stocks’ future value; future market trends; and other future events. Such statements are speculative, based on assumptions that may prove inaccurate, and subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

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