Tom Lee says the real bull market hasn’t even begun, predicting massive growth in the stock market, suggesting the S&P 500 will more than double by 2030 thanks to AI-driven productivity and economic strength. But when I break down the numbers, history, and fundamentals, that kind of growth would require an unrealistic 28% annual earnings increase — something we’ve never seen, not even during past tech booms. While Wall Street, Cramer, and Cathie Wood cheer on this rally, I stay grounded in principles: focus on valuation, avoid hype, and invest with discipline. Whether the market soars or crashes, sticking to logic over emotion is what really builds wealth.
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What if the 10 year drops to 3.33% (which implies a P/E ration of ~30). Which means the S&P only has to have earnings of $500. Throw in 5% inflation and that means 500 in today's dollars is ~$400 in 2030. Then earnings only have to 2X over 5 years. 72/5 which is 14.5%. Seems reasonable since Amazon has invested in data centers with $40B in 2020 and $83B in 2024 and roughly $125B in 2025 and still growing into 2026. Their net income may be $70B this year with a capex of $125B. That's roughly $200B per year in profits with a market cap of $2.6T. That would be a P/E ratio of 13 or 14. I don't think it's too unrealistic in this environment. Just saw South Korea bought 260,000 NVDA chips (which is roughly $7B for NVDA). AI runs on GPU's and traditional software runs on CPU's. All software layers have been changed to run on GPU's. Monumental changes in compute.
Tom Lee disgusts me – no substance no explanation just buy the stonks and saddest thing is he turns right cause Scam Fed with printing confetti, Trump manipulating Market with his tweets and putting his people in stat agencies and Fed. And government publishing fake numbers
Yes I’m buyer ESE Entertainment, this year it the year.
These guys have no clue. The companies think they control spending but they dont. With all these layoffs, people are really tightening up.
this guy hated pltr at 7 bucks
Wait didn't this guy say sell pltr? Lol at like 20? Lol why YouTube recommending me this
If stocks are overvalued why is everyone buying them?
Not his girlfriend i fact tracked it 🤣🤣
Tom Lee not drummer is great
Great numbers Paul. I'm keeping cash reserved and using stop losses on all holdings up by 10% or more.