You should NOT work at a startup

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Is working at a startup really a good idea?

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SOURCE
https://x.com/theo/status/1960086531198394415

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Date: September 8, 2025

40 thoughts on “You should NOT work at a startup

  1. You know Theo is in the AI bubble when he describes the investing ladder for a typical VC startup. $20M Series A on a $200M valuation is literally so insane. Only AI fomo can create such an absurd Series A. More realistic curve is (raise amount/post-money valuation): $10M/$50M Series A, $40M/$300M Series B, $150M/$1B Series C, etc. And that's for a very strong, very high-growth company. What this means is that when you get 0.5% equity pre-Seed dilution, then by the time you reach a unicorn valuation, you're probably looking at more like 0.2% remaining which is still a cool $2M. Even PostHog, which is a regular feature of this channel (and Theo is a fan) has a raise curve that looks like this: $3M Seed, $9M Series A, $15M Series B, and $80M Series C (technically there was what looks to be a $10M bridge "Series C" followed by a proper $70M "Series D" a year later which I've combined together into just one Series C). That's even significantly less than my theoretical example, though they may have simply given away less equity (aka had similar valuations to what I put but just sold less equity).

  2. A bias you have in your last statement "If you're in the top 1% at FAANG, go join an early stage company" has an implicit bias of "You're in USA". I worked HARD on delivering features for Gemini, but I did it from Berlin. I have few connections, but they are in the wrong country. If I wanted to join an early stage startup, I just cannot. I don't have a visa, and being laid off on a visa means you have to go back to your oppressive regime country and fear being jailed. I REALLY want to join an early stage company, but the startup space in Germany is deserted.

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